Turn Assumptions into Systems of Learning

Open topics
1

I saved a comment a couple of weeks back from @Helge, as it was a masterclass in one comment. I thought it would be useful to better understand all his references:

“We did assumptions testing as well.. on everything: from strategy to execution, creative concepts to insights. Once you get comfortable asking: “what has to be true for ‘x’ to be true?”(Roger Martin), collect the assumptions, prioritize and identify the riskiest ones (Rik Higham) your in a position to run experiments on almost everything (Stefan Thomke). Which is a necessity for teams navigating in complex environments (Dave Snowden). Experimentation is awesome and the goals should be to 1. do it everywhere, and 2. figure out how to do them at zero marginal cost (Jeremy Rifkin). Then you’ll truly be in a position to run experiments to be surprised (curiosity) not only confirm (confidence). :star_struck::star_struck::star_struck:”

Here’s the post from: :sparkles: Büşra Coşkuner where he left the comment.

Here are my learnings:

:one: Assumptions
What must be true for this to work? (Reveal assumptions|)
Roger Martin
He introduces the assumption lens Helping teams surface what must be true for a strategy, idea, or hypothesis to work.

  • Encourages curiosity over certainty.
  • Turns strategy into a series of testable beliefs.
  • Sets the foundation for learning-driven organizations.

Here is his book, Playing to Win: How Strategy Really Works

:two: Risks
Which assumptions are riskiest? (Prioritize what to test)
Rik Higham
He operationalizes Martin’s insight by showing how to map, cluster, and rank assumptions.

  • Identify which assumptions are both most uncertain and most impactful.
  • Direct energy toward what could break your idea first.

Here’s a list of Rik Higham’s articles.

:three: Experiments
How do we build testing into everything?(Create experimentation systems)
Stefan Thomke
He shows how to turn testing into a daily habit rather than a one-off event.

  • Embed experiments across every function (not just product or design).
  • Reward learning, not just outcomes.
  • Lower the marginal cost of testing to enable continuous iteration.

Here is his book, Experimentation Works: The Surprising Power of Business Experiments

:four: Learning
How do we learn in complex environments?(Learn through safe-to-fail experiments)
Dave Snowden
He explains why experimentation is vital: in complex systems, you can’t predict outcomes in advance.

  • Run safe-to-fail probes instead of big-bet projects.
  • Sense patterns and adjust based on what emerges.
  • Learn through feedback loops rather than forecasts.

Here’s his Cynefin framework

:five: Scale
How do we make experimentation frictionless? (Enable experimentation at zero cost)
Jeremy Rifkin
Rifkin paints the future state where experiments become almost free.

  • Digitalization, automation, and AI drive cost per experiment toward zero.
  • When experimentation costs almost nothing, innovation becomes constant.
  • Every team can explore, test, and learn at scale.

Here is his book: The Zero Marginal Cost Society

2 Likes
2

a wonderful detailed summary :star_struck: thank you :grin:

1 Like
3

These resources :fire: every layer connects back to how teams learn faster together. Thanks for opening this up @Helge !

1 Like
4

Unsure how I missed this. I need to book mark all of these!

5

I wonder if @nikhil_mahen would find any of these interesting :eyes:

6

I absolutely do. These frameworks actually go beyond product design as well. For the assumptions test, we like to do a biweekly pre mortem to see where we are failing the client.

I was partial to Eric Ries’ experimentation loops - Built - measure - learn - build.. obviously we have our own tweaks but its a fantastic model. In that case we start with the 5 why’s method and criticality vs known unknowns framework to identify what unknowns will kill us. And design tests based on hypotheses which stem from the identified unknowns.

2 Likes